Amy Edwards walks her dogs at the entrance to Burcham Park Friday, June 3, 2011, watching flood waters from the Kansas River spill over into the park. The Parks and Recreation department closed the park at 5 p.m. Thursday. The Kansas River reached flood stage in Lawrence Friday morning but the water level is expected to decline tonight or Saturday morning, according to officials at Douglas County Emergency Management. At left is Jake Delatorre, 14. by Mike Yoder
Flooding in the Midwest should be a reminder that governments need to re-evaluate projections for severe weather events. That’s according to a group of researchers with the Union of Concerned Scientists who believe that human-induced climate change is triggering recent heavy rain and flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi rivers.
“We have instituted flood protection and we have been able to save lives. But what we haven’t done is adjust our flood protection to the new normal of climate change,” said Brenda Ekwurzel, assistant director for Climate Research and Analysis with the Union of Concerned Scientists.
As waters rose across the Midwest and South this spring, the Union of Concerned Scientists issued a report that noted a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. So, when storms occur there is more water vapor in the atmosphere to fall as rain, snow or hail. Since 1970, water vapor over the oceans has increased by 4 percent, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“It’s more likely that when it rains it will pour and that creates much more likelihood for flooding,” Ekwurzel said.
With the idea that climate change will result in the wettest part of the Earth becoming wetter and the driest areas dryer, Ekwurzel said governments need to do a better job of preparing for the worst.
“It’s extremely important to engage local officials and planners about how we think about and prepare for the next five to ten years. We have to prepare for huge floods,” Ekwurzel said.
State climatologists Mary Knapp questions the conclusions the group of scientists drew on certain points. However, she does believe that those planning for emergencies need to consider wider extremes in weather events. She believes people can be reluctant to make changes because it could mean recalculating the floodplain, which could cost money and alter property values.
“It think what people should do is evaluate the range of possibilities and look at the possibility of maybe not having as predictable or stable (event),” Knapp said.
Research shows that from 1958 to 2007, the amount of rainfall in the heaviest 1 percent of storms increased by 31 percent on average for the Midwest, the Union of Concerned Scientists report.
In Kansas, the past three decades have been wetter than in the previous period, Knapp said. “If we are having more rain, it’s more likely we are going to have an increase in frequency of big rain events,” Knapp said.
She also questions the scientists’ theory that after a heavy rain, there is less water vapor in the atmosphere so dry spells will be longer.
“When you get a heavy rain event, yes it temporarily reduces the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, but you’ve got that water saturated into the ground that will evaporate and add moisture (back into) the atmosphere.
In fact, she said it’s often likely to rain in the same place it rained the last time.
She also said that large rain events are only one factor in creating flooding. For example, she pointed to the layer of events that lead to the current flooding along the Missouri.
Last year was a wet one, so storage capacity was already high. Coupled with last year’s moisture was an unusually heavy snow pack in the Rocky Mountains. Spring rains only added to the problem.
“So now you’ve got more water than a system can handle,” she said. Knapp cautioned against placing blame on climate change for the flooding.
“Focusing climate change particularly as being the cause can lead to the assumption that we can somehow remove the possibility, that we can control climate change, therefore we won’t have flooding, which is a dangerous assumption to make,” Knapp said.
Tagged: Midwest, flooding, climate change, union of concern scientists, State Climatologist Mary Knapp
Comments
prospector (anonymous) says…
"human-induced climate change"
Baloney
There are exponential volumes of "stuff" that is put in the atmosphere by nature. If you think that the trace amounts added to the whole by us will change things, you are only believing yourself omnipotent.
Thirty years of data sez so!!!! It is a hell of a lot less that when the glaciers were here. Damn Charlatans.
There is no such thing as flood control. If you think so, see omnipotent.
The truth is the Corp of Engineers have us all believing that there is an ability to control flooding. It is the channelization by the levees that just pushes the problem to the weakest point. It sucks that the corp and these people waste so much trying to fix the unfix-able or create make believe scenarios.
Get rid of the Corp and let nature take its coarse. That is the way it was meant to be. Live with it.
kenos (anonymous) says…
Why does the LJW continue to promote this crap? Do the Simons hope to profit in some way from carbon taxes?
KUweatherman (Curtis Lange) says…
I love how everything tries to get tied to 'climate change' now, lol. Yes, our ineffective land use and overbuilding causes more run-off, less water infiltration, etc but that doesn't mean we're 'killing the planet.'
If people build near water, there is always the possibility of their property being flooded. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Mother Nature is going to do what she wants, no matter HOW much man tries to manage it.
hear_me (anonymous) says…
Opinion does not trump science. That said, a more investigative and thorough article would be appreciated.